In his post-draft NFL power rankings, Sheil Kapadia suggest the 49ers are set to bounce back after a tough 2020 season:

“There are a number of statistical indicators to suggest the 49ers could be due for a bounce-back season in 2021. According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, only two teams were hurt more by turnovers than the 49ers last season. It’s true that bad teams often get crushed by turnovers. But there’s also luck and randomness involved. A little regression to the mean with turnovers would help San Francisco in a big way.”

Full article: The Athletic

Michael-Shawn Dugar uses TruMedia’s PFF-powered research platform to look at what Aldon Smith brings to the Seahawks:

“Smith had 50 quarterback pressures, five sacks and a generated pressure on 12.1 percent of his pass-rush reps, ranking 35th among qualifying edge defenders, according to TruMedia. He was one spot behind Chicago’s Khalil Mack and one above Cleveland’s Myles Garrett, both of whom made the Pro Bowl in 2020. Smith’s total pressures would have led the Seahawks last season; his pressure percentage would have ranked second among Seattle defensive linemen and would have been third overall behind safety Jamal Adams and defensive end Carlos Dunlap.”

Full article: The Athletic

For The Athletic, Sheil Kapadia ponders what he’s learned about all 32 NFL teams this offseason, including the Raiders' questionable moves:

“In 2019 and 2020, the Raiders’ offense ranked eighth in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap metric. Translation: The offense has worked, and offensive efficiency is the biggest key to sustained success in the NFL. A big part of that was the play of the offensive line. But in the offseason, Jon Gruden decided to move on from offensive tackle Trent Brown, center Rodney Hudson and guard Gabe Jackson.

The initial thought was to use some of those financial resources on the defensive side of the ball, but then they signed running back Kenyan Drake to a two-year, $11 million deal with $8.5 million guaranteed.”

Full article: The Athletic

Can Sam Darnold follow Ryan Tannehill's career path? Sheil Kapadia analyzes the Jets-Panthers trade:

“As for the Panthers, they’ve done nothing to hide the fact that they want an upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater. So what’s the case for taking a chance on Darnold? One, trading for players who underachieved under Adam Gase is not a bad plan. The name that will come up often is Ryan Tannehill. In three seasons (2016-2018) on the Miami Dolphins with Gase, Tannehill produced -0.04 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, according to TruMedia’s model. That ranked 33rd out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. As a point of reference, Darnold has performed at a similar level (-0.06 EPA per play) over the last three seasons — two with Gase.

Tannehill turned his career around with the Tennessee Titans and has produced 0.27 EPA per play, which ranks second. The Panthers will hope that Darnold can make a similar leap in a new scheme with better coaching and an improved supporting cast, led by Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson (a former Jets teammate of Darnold).”

Full article: The Athletic

NFL executives and talent evaluators give Mike Sando their thoughts on every team's free-agency period so far, including one evaluator thinking the Rams overpaid for Matthew Stafford:

“I think really the Rams overpaid for Stafford,” an evaluator said. “He’s an upgrade over Goff, but they gave up a ton. They are clearly in win-now mode. Are they better this year? Yeah, but the amount of capital they gave up to get Stafford was outrageous. I don’t think Goff is that much worse than Stafford. He is not as good, but not terrible. Maybe I’m mis-evaluating Goff.”

Stafford’s Lions went 11-5 and 10-6 in the only two seasons they ranked among the top 10 in defensive expected points added (EPA), according to TruMedia. They ranked 20th or worse eight times. The Rams were No. 1 in that category last season. Over the past 15 seasons, every team that finished first in defensive EPA had a winning record, including teams that got 10-plus starts from Mitch Trubisky, Blake Bortles, Mark Sanchez, Kyle Orton and Trevor Siemian.”

Full article: The Athletic

The Athletic continues to use TruMedia’s PFF-powered research platform extensively in offseason coverage of teams including:

Seahawks: “Seattle is likely attracted to his physical tools. (Akhello) Witherspoon is 6-foot-3 with long arms and a 4.45 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine. He hasn’t gotten his hands on the ball much, totaling just 24 passes defensed in his career. That ranks 93rd since 2017, with only four interceptions. In 2020, Witherspoon had four passes defensed in 203 coverage snaps (per TruMedia) and one interception – all in San Francisco’s final three games.”

49ers: “Although (Alex) Mack may have lost a step since his dominant prime, he’s still a solid pass protector who allowed only one sack over 633 pass-blocking snaps in 2020, per TruMedia. Mack will mark a surefire improvement for a 49ers’ center situation that endured a few disasters in 2020. By the end of the season, the 49ers were starting their fourth-string center, Daniel Brunskill. This also created a big issue at right guard, Brunskill’s original position.”

Giants: “(Leonard) Williams, who turns 27 in June, recorded a career-high 11.5 sacks in 2020. Per TruMedia, his 12.7 percent pressure rate ranked among the league’s top-five interior defensive linemen. Williams has also been a stout run defender throughout his entire career, which began with the New York Jets in 2015. The Giants traded a third- and fifth-round pick for him in October of 2019.”

Michael-Shawn Dugar looks at Seahawks free-agent running back options, including former Packer Jamaal Williams:

“Williams, who will be 26 at the start of the season, also has potential to create a nice 1-2 punch with Penny. The former Green Bay Packer put together an efficient season complementing Aaron Jones in 2020. Williams ranked third in EPA per carry and 15th in total EPA on rushes, per TruMedia. He caught 31 of 35 targets (with two drops) and averaged as many yards per reception (7.6) as Jones. Production by Green Bay running backs must be taken with a grain of salt because the Packers’ offensive line is elite, and it’s unreasonable to assume someone carrying the ball behind that front will bring that same exact efficiency to a team with a lesser run-blocking group. Still, Williams would be a low-risk option and has shown to have talent that may be showcased regardless of the O-line.”

Full article: The Athletic

Aaron Reiss checks in on the Texans free-agency board, including their defensive line options:

“DT Sheldon Rankins (27): The No. 12 overall pick in 2016 was solid but unspectacular in five seasons with the Saints. He played 40 percent of defensive snaps last season and recorded nine QB hits and 1.5 sacks. He produced pressure on 8.9 percent of opportunities, according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. That would’ve ranked second among Texans defensive linemen, behind only Charles Omenihu.”

Full article: The Athletic