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TruMedia Networks is a software engineering firm focused on powering sports analytics platforms.

In the News

News about TruMedia and articles featuring TruMedia data and analysis.

Bench Marlon Mack vs Broncos

Rafe Anderson

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model as he emphasizes reasons to leave Marlon Mack on your fantasy bench…

“Marlon Mack has been inconsistent this year — he’s scored two touchdowns in the first three games but none since — and he doesn’t figure to get back on track against the top-rated Denver run defense.

The Broncos’ rush defense allows opposing backs to run for a successful play (positive expected points added) 33 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia, with a third-down conversion rate allowed that is significantly below average (39 percent for Denver compared to league average of 49 percent).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Expected goals guide fantasy decisions

Rafe Anderson

TruMedia’s expected-goals model helps guide fantasy decisions in these ESPN.com articles:

Premier League: “Raheem Sterling will be my Tier 1 midfielder. Sterling is tied for fourth in the league with six goals. He's also tied for fourth in shots with 25 and ranks second in the league in xG (expected goals) according to TruMedia's model at 4.98, behind only Aguero (6.82).”

La Liga: “Another exciting team so far this season has been Sevilla, who are currently in sixth place. They're coming off a 4-0 loss at Barcelona, as mentioned above, but don't let that scoreline fool you. Sevilla actually outshot Barca 16-15 in that game, and topped them in terms of TruMedia's xG (expected goals) model 3.07 - 2.30.”

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Bench Peterson against 49ers

Rafe Anderson

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg recommends benching Adrian Peterson on your fantasy team, as the Redskins face the heavily-favored 49ers on Sunday:

“When Peterson was a member of the Minnesota Vikings from 2007 to 2016, the team ran the ball 53% of the time when tied or leading their opponent, per data from TruMedia. That dropped to 36% of the time when trailing. Washington has run the ball 51% and 33% in those situations, respectively, during Peterson’s two-year tenure with the club.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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ESPN's mid-season All-America team

Rafe Anderson

Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard of was picked for ESPN's mid-season All-America team by Chris Low and Mark Schlabach, with the help of TruMedia's research platform:

“It took FBS coaches a while to learn about Hubbard, but now they know all about the world-class sprinter from Alberta, Canada. He leads the FBS in rushing yards (1,094), carries (162) and rushing yards per game (182.3) and is second in rushing touchdowns (13). He's on pace to finish the season with 2,188 rushing yards, which would set a Big 12 record (OSU was in the Big Eight when Barry Sanders ran for 2,628 yards in 11 games in 1988) and would be the eighth-highest total in FBS history. According to TruMedia Networks, Hubbard has 594 yards before contact and 500 yards after contact, both No. 1 among FBS players.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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49ers winning with great defense

Rafe Anderson

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool and expected-points model to discover how good the 49ers defense has been this season:

“No team is forcing opponents to go three-and-out more often than San Francisco (48%). That, in turn, has given opponents less than 25 minutes of possession on average, the second-best mark in the NFL. Perhaps most impressively, San Francisco’s defense is allowing 33 points fewer per 100 snaps than we would expect given the down, distance and field position of each play against, per data from TruMedia. Since 2002, the first year the league expanded to 32 teams, only this year’s Patriots have saved more points over the first six weeks of a season (45 fewer points per 100 snaps).”

Full article: The Washington Post

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TruMedia is MLB industry standard

Rafe Anderson

TruMedia was mentioned as the MLB industry standard in recent articles about Orioles and Pirates pitching staffs.

The Athletic: “All I have to do is go to TruMedia (Networks) or one of the other outlets that we have and say, ‘You see this? You’ve punched out 13 guys, you’ve had three put it in play, and they are all outs. You can absolutely abuse this pitch to both righties and lefties.’”

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: “From my experience, they’re not an organization that’s just free rein, do what you want, here’s your TruMedia account, go look at whatever you want, because I think a lot of players would get in their own heads about it,” (Class AA pitcher) Beau Sulser said. “They kind of go on a person-by-person basis.”

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Messi is the best shooter

Rafe Anderson

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon examines soccer’s best shooters, including Lionel Messi, using TruMedia’s research tool and graphics…

To determine the best shooters, we can compare xG to xGOT to see which players have added the most value to their attempts. Using TruMedia data for all domestic seasons going back to the start of the 2014-15 season, we'll identify the best at a number of shots and end by identifying the best shooter of them all. …

These are all of Messi's free kicks since 2014. Look how many ended up in the corners. Goals are green, and misses are red.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Redskins rushing woes

Rafe Anderson

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg writes on the Redskins rushing issues this season…

“With Derrius Guice injured, Washington’s primary rusher, Adrian Peterson, is having one of the worst rushing campaigns in the league. Peterson is averaging 2.7 yards per carry, with a success rate of 28 percent, success determined by whether a runner gets at least 45 percent of the yards needed for a first down on first down, at least 60 percent on second down or 100 percent of the yards needed for a first down on third or fourth down. Peterson ranks 35th of the 35 rushers who have at least 40 carries. The league average success rate this year for rushers with at least as many carries as Peterson is 44 percent, according to data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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What if Man United kept David Moyes?

Rafe Anderson

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool as he looks back at David Moyes’ short tenure as Manchester United manager…

“Among the six post-Ferguson seasons, Moyes's one year with United ranks last in points (64), but that's perhaps slightly unkind. That team scored more goals (64) than all but two of the others and allowed more (43) than all but one. Their goal differential (plus-21) was the fourth-best of the post-Fergie years. They may have even been slightly unfortunate to finish where they did. Injuries limited Robin van Persie, who'd scored 56 goals in the previous two Premier League seasons, to just 1,579 minutes. And according to TruMedia data, United's expected-goal differential under Moyes was fifth-best in the Premier League in 2013-14.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Are the 2019 Patriots better than the 2007 Patriots?

Rafe Anderson

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to compare the 2019 Patriots to the 2007 team, which finished the regular season 16-0:

“New England’s offense scored 63 more points than expected through the first three games of 2007 after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. Those Patriots saved just 19 points on defense. This year, New England scored 19 more points than expected on offense, with 81 points saved on defense, a complete inverse of how 2007′s squad began its undefeated campaign.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Analyzing possible MLB playoff matchups

Rafe Anderson

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle uses TruMedia’s research tool analyze the teams that the favorites do (and don’t) want to face in the MLB playoffs…

The Yankees also have to keep the other team off the scoreboard. Their postseason pitching staff profiles as the hardest-throwing staff in the AL, the staff most heavily populated by lefty pitchers and with the most vicious bullpen. The Astros and Athletics have the best collective OPS figures against lefties. The teams that have been the most productive against what TruMedia defines as "hard" pitches are also the Astros and Athletics.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Start Garoppolo vs Steelers defense

Rafe Anderson

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to support his case for Jimmy Garoppolo as a starting fantasy quarterback this week…

“…it is unlikely (Minkah) Fitzpatrick will be able to make an impact in his first week with the [Steelers]. Instead, look for Garoppolo and the 49ers to find success against a pass defense that is allowing 15 points more per game via the pass after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw against. Only the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins have been worse in 2019, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Is Harry Kane on the decline?

Rafe Anderson

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool and models to see how Harry Kane may be on the decline…

According to TruMedia's post-shot xG model, Kane's shooting (i.e., where he placed the ball on the goal frame) added a whopping 0.2 xG to his shots per 90 minutes. Finishing, though, is unpredictable from year to year and most players regress toward their xG numbers, so Kane was able to reach the same heights the next year because of the massive increase in shots. The year before produced world-class results on an unsustainable process, and it seemed as if he'd figured out a way to make the results stick.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Redskins line faces challenge vs Cowboys

Rafe Anderson

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg writes that the Redskins defensive line is not yet living up to the hype, using TruMedia’s research tool to highlight the line’s importance this coming week against Dallas…

The more Dallas outscores its opponent, the more the Cowboys run the ball. Since 2007, Coach Jason Garrett’s first year on staff (then as the offensive coordinator), the Cowboys have run the ball more than half the time when leading by four or more points. That drops to 32 percent when Dallas trails by four or more.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Sit Chiefs running backs vs Jags

Rafe Anderson

Sitting all the Chiefs running backs may be a wise fantasy football move for Week 1, says Neil Greenberg, with the help of TruMedia’s expected-points model:

LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: We don’t know which of these three running backs will get the majority of the workload in Week 1, but we do know that all three will be going up against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that is expected to be the 11th best of 2019. Jacksonville’s defensive front stopped 22% of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage in 2018 (the league average was 19%) and allowed eight fewer points per 100 rushing plays against than you would expect after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per TruMedia. Only the Houston Texans (9.6 points saved per 100 rushing plays) were better at preventing points on the ground last season.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Ezekiel Elliott not worth the cash?

Rafe Anderson

Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected points model to suggest that Ezekiel Elliott may not be worth the huge contract the Cowboys gave him:

According to TruMedia, Dallas scored 2.2 points more than expected per 100 snaps in 2016 after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each of Elliott’s carries. That dropped to 1.1 fewer points than expected per 100 snaps in 2017, and dropped again in 2018 to 5.5 fewer points than expected per 100 snaps. The drop was even more stark on red-zone carries: 30.3 points more than expected per 100 attempts in 2016, 22.2 in 2017 and 3.9 in 2018.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Mo Salah reigns as the top PL attacker

Rafe Anderson

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon writes that Liverpool’s Mo Salah is the reigning top attacker in the Premier League…

However, given the heights Salah hit the previous season, tying for the league-lead in goals+assists isn't enough to cost him the throne. While standard expected goals models just take into account the location of a shot, TruMedia has a post-shot xG model that adds or subtracts value from a shot based on where it was put on the goal frame. (Shots that miss the net get a big ol' zero.) According to this data, Salah led the league with 24.06 xG (on 22 goals), while no one else was above 20, and Aguero was down at 16.69 (on 21 goals).

Put another way: The main reason Salah didn't score more goals was that opposing keepers consistently stood on their heads when he shot the ball.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Five fantasy players to upgrade

Rafe Anderson

Neil Greenberg has five players to move up your fantasy draft boards after the preseason, including Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk:

The Arizona Cardinals have a rookie head coach (Kliff Kingsbury) and a rookie quarterback (Kyler Murray, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft), so any chemistry we see on the gridiron has to be taken as a positive, even in scrimmages. Murray targeted Christian Kirk a team-high nine times this preseason, per data from TruMedia. Two of those targets were 20 or more yards downfield and one other was in the red zone, illustrating how versatile Kingsbury feels Kirk could be once the regular season starts.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Man City's dominance only grows

Rafe Anderson

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon writes that Manchester City is turning into a superteam, using TruMedia’s research tool and expected-goals model:

Before last season kicked off, "a [Kevin de Bruyne] injury" was probably No. 1 on the List of Reasons Why City Won't Repeat. A KDB injury is exactly what happened; he played fewer than 1,000 minutes in 2018-19 after struggling with injuries, and yet City were basically as they good as they were the year before. In fact, according to TruMedia data, their expected-goal differential actually improved after the 100-point season. Guardiola has his third "superteam," but this time they don't have an irreplaceable superstar.

Full article: ESPN.com

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