With Dak Prescott returning to Dallas, Jake Ciely breaks down what it means for the fantasy football value of Prescott and other Cowboys:
“If you go super deep with TruMedia metrics, particularly EPA (Expected Points Added — the difference between expected points at the start of a play and its end), the differences are a stark contrast.
PassEPA/Snap: 12.4 vs. -2.0
RushEPA/Snap: 0.7 vs. -4.7
EPA/Snap: 13.0 vs. -7.5”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreChris Towers uses TruMedia’s research tool throughout his weekly waiver wire column, including a look at Chargers snap counts for running backs…
“We know the Chargers want to use multiple backs, and that's what they did Sunday after Ekeler's injury. Per TruMedia and PFF, Jackson played nine snaps in the second half of the game to 14 for Kelley, and that's pretty close to the split you should expect moving forward. Neither is the playmaker Ekeler is, but both should see a few looks in the passing game in addition to their rushing opportunities, which could make both starting options in Week 5 against the Saints.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreMelvin Gordon has been underwhelming this season, writes Jared Dubin in his Broncos-Jets preview for CBS:
“Gordon's averaging a paltry 4.1 yards per carry, which is actually a tick better than his career average in five seasons with the Chargers. His success rate on running plays sits at just 33.3 percent, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia, tying him with Jets running back Frank Gore for 36th out of 44 qualifying players with at least 20 carries. The Broncos would be far better off featuring Phillip Lindsay, if he's able to return from injury. “
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreConsider Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins if you need a No. 3 wide receiver, writes Chris Towers for CBS:
“Higgins' upside isn't quite as high in my eyes -- or the path to seeing that upside come to fruition has a few more roadblocks. However, he played a significant role Sunday, coming in second on the team with nine targets and actually ranking first in snaps, per TruMedia. But it was the trust Joe Burrow showed in him near the goal line that really makes Higgins look so enticing. The 33rd overall pick in this year's draft scored from 1 and 4 yards out, scoring both of Burrow's touchdowns in the game. The problem is, Tyler Boyd saw 13 targets in a huge game of his own and A.J. Green isn't just going away either.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreIn his fantasy review of NFL Week 2, Chris Towers was disappointed in David Johnson's performance and not his opportunities:
“One number to know: With Duke Johnson sidelined, David Johnson played 56 of 59 snaps and ran 36 routes, per PFF and TruMedia. This was a disappointing performance after his impassive Week 1, but I'm not discouraged.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreCBS fantasy writer Chris Towers rates Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki as one of the week’s top waiver pickups:
“Mike Gesicki has been threatening to have a game like this for a while. He has a hugely valuable role in Miami's offense running downfield routes as the team's primary slot receiver, and he ran 35 routes on 45 snaps per TruMedia and PFF. He made some incredibly impressive catches Sunday, and this could have been the start of something big. I might view him as a top-six TE in Week 3 against the Jaguars.”
Full article: CBS Sports
Read MoreThe Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg highlights the riskiest fantasy football picks, including T.Y. Hilton in the fifth round:
“Hilton is well past his prime (he will turn 31 in November) and will have to find chemistry with his second new quarterback in as many years despite no preseason. He will also have to contend with youngsters Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell for targets in what’s expected to be a run-heavy offense. With the score within eight points, no team used their running backs to run the ball more often than Indianapolis last year, per data from TruMedia (19.5 carries per game).”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research platform in compiling his fantasy football Top 200 rankings, saying that the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler is a top-10 fantasy running back and a top-20 overall pick…
“Ekeler is a dynamic playmaker who earned PFF’s highest receiving grade among running backs in 2019. Expect new quarterback Tyrod Taylor to lean just as heavily on Ekeler out of the backfield. During Taylor’s time as a starting quarterback in Buffalo (2015 to 2017), he threw to his running backs more than 18 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia — 10th-most among quarterbacks in that span.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreNeil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model in suggesting the 49ers defense should be high on a playoff fantasy draft board:
“Opponents scored nine points per game fewer than expected against the 49ers after you take into account the down, distance and field position of each play against them, per data from TruMedia. Only the Patriots performed better in 2019.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreIn his weekly start/sit column, The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg suggests benching Courtland Sutton against the Bills…
“[Sutton] has caught 49 of 76 targets for 805 yards and four touchdowns through 10 games, all improvements over his rookie campaign. However, the Broncos now face the Bills, one of six teams that have intercepted more passes to wideouts than they have allowed touchdowns, per data from TruMedia, giving Buffalo’s defense the second-lowest passer rating against this season when opposing quarterbacks target their wide receivers (76.1).”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreIn his weekly start/sit column, The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool and expected-points model to suggest starting the Giants defense this week…
“The Giants are a risky play most weeks but Sunday’s opponent, the cross-town New York Jets, are having a lot of difficulty on offense this season. The team is averaging less than a point per drive and has been forced to go three-and-out more than 47 percent of the time. Both are league lows. Over their past three games, Jets quarterbacks have been sacked 12 times and have thrown eight interceptions.
The Jets are also scoring 17 points per game fewer than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each offensive play, per TruMedia. That’s the worst mark since 2002, the first year the league expanded to 32 teams.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreNeil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to recommend the Colts defense for your fantasy team this week…
“The Colts' defense is subpar in many ways, but this week's matchup against the Miami Dolphins is too good to pass up. The Dolphins are scoring just 1.2 points per drive (the third lowest this season) while being forced to go three-and-out on a third of their drives.
Miami is also scoring 12 points per game fewer than you would expect based on the down, distance and field position of each play run, per data from TruMedia, making them the second-worst performing offense of 2019. Only the New York Jets are worse.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Washington Post uses TruMedia’s research tool to suggest putting Kyler Murray on your fantasy bench this week, as Murray faces a tough 49ers defense…
“San Francisco’s … top-ranked pass rush should give Murray fits in the pocket. And that’s terrible news for the Cardinals, as Arizona’s points per drive drop from 2.3 to 0.8 on drives featuring at least one sack of Murray this season, per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model as he emphasizes reasons to leave Marlon Mack on your fantasy bench…
“Marlon Mack has been inconsistent this year — he’s scored two touchdowns in the first three games but none since — and he doesn’t figure to get back on track against the top-rated Denver run defense.
The Broncos’ rush defense allows opposing backs to run for a successful play (positive expected points added) 33 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia, with a third-down conversion rate allowed that is significantly below average (39 percent for Denver compared to league average of 49 percent).”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg recommends benching Adrian Peterson on your fantasy team, as the Redskins face the heavily-favored 49ers on Sunday:
“When Peterson was a member of the Minnesota Vikings from 2007 to 2016, the team ran the ball 53% of the time when tied or leading their opponent, per data from TruMedia. That dropped to 36% of the time when trailing. Washington has run the ball 51% and 33% in those situations, respectively, during Peterson’s two-year tenure with the club.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to support his case for Jimmy Garoppolo as a starting fantasy quarterback this week…
“…it is unlikely (Minkah) Fitzpatrick will be able to make an impact in his first week with the [Steelers]. Instead, look for Garoppolo and the 49ers to find success against a pass defense that is allowing 15 points more per game via the pass after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw against. Only the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins have been worse in 2019, per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreSitting all the Chiefs running backs may be a wise fantasy football move for Week 1, says Neil Greenberg, with the help of TruMedia’s expected-points model:
LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: We don’t know which of these three running backs will get the majority of the workload in Week 1, but we do know that all three will be going up against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that is expected to be the 11th best of 2019. Jacksonville’s defensive front stopped 22% of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage in 2018 (the league average was 19%) and allowed eight fewer points per 100 rushing plays against than you would expect after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per TruMedia. Only the Houston Texans (9.6 points saved per 100 rushing plays) were better at preventing points on the ground last season.
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreNeil Greenberg has five players to move up your fantasy draft boards after the preseason, including Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk:
The Arizona Cardinals have a rookie head coach (Kliff Kingsbury) and a rookie quarterback (Kyler Murray, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft), so any chemistry we see on the gridiron has to be taken as a positive, even in scrimmages. Murray targeted Christian Kirk a team-high nine times this preseason, per data from TruMedia. Two of those targets were 20 or more yards downfield and one other was in the red zone, illustrating how versatile Kingsbury feels Kirk could be once the regular season starts.
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreNeil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research tool to help pick five rookies worthy of draft consideration in your fantasy league. He includes Kyler Murray, whose Arizona Cardinals are likely to trail frequently and therefore throw the ball a lot in his first season.
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg cites TruMedia’s expected-points model as a reason to add the Patriots defense for their Week 16 matchup against the Bills.
“Buffalo scores nearly 13 fewer points per game than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play. Only the Arizona Cardinals are worse, per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read More
