Will teams choose fourth and 15?

How might the NFL’s alternative to onside kicks affect trailing teams’ strategy? Neil Greenberg takes a look, using TruMedia’s research tool…

“Not only would an attempt on fourth and 15 provide added drama, it would also give the trailing team a better chance. Over the past 18 years, teams have converted 32 of 115 attempts in this scenario for a 28 percent success rate, per TruMedia. If we widen the parameters to include third and 15 (a decent proxy, given a team would normally punt on the ensuing fourth down if it wasn’t trailing late), the success rate drops to 18 percent (470 for 2,580), but that’s still an improvement over the traditional onside kick.”

Full article: The Washington Post