Posts tagged soccer
Chelsea will keep a clean sheet
Chelsea will keep a clean sheet

James Benge uses TruMedia’s ProVision research platform and graphics to make predictions for the UEFA Champions League semifinals:

“Some of the defensive numbers emerging from Stamford Bridge are simply staggering. In 18 Premier League and Champions League matches since appointing Tuchel Chelsea have faced shots on their goals worth an average of 0.58 xG per game. Only two teams have had a shot profile that was better than one expected goal, the aforementioned Porto in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal and a West Bromwich Albion side that were playing against 10 men for over an hour.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Sadio Mane not finishing
Sadio Mane not finishing

James Benge looks at Liverpool’s struggles and sees Sadio Mane taking similar shots to last season, but not converting at the same rate:

“Despite taking half a shot more than last season he is logging the same quality of shots per game -- as measured by expected goals (xG) -- and Opta's xG on target metric shows that a player who was averaging half a goal per game last season based on where his shots actually ended up is now only a small fraction over one goal per three games. In other words, Mane is getting into similar positions to last season but making far less of the opportunities that come his way. Just look at his shot points below, there are a lot of good quality looks in red.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Can City shut down Haaland?
Can City shut down Haaland?

Can Manchester City shut down Dortmund dynamo Erling Haaland? James Benge analyzes their matchup:

“City are exceptional at stopping the ball from reaching Haaland's spot. The English giants have only conceded one goal because they have faced a ludicrously small number of shots (35 in eight games) and most of those have been low probability efforts. According to Opta, City's combined expected goals (xG) conceded tally -- a metric that assesses the probability of any shot being scored -- is 2.26, a comically low number when the competition's next best defense is Chelsea with more than double that figure (5.73).”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Why Mourinho is to blame
Why Mourinho is to blame

Mike Goodman uses TruMedia’s ProVision research platform to analyze Tottenham’s struggles under Jose Mourinho this season:

“Same coach, different players indeed. Jose Mourinho's players are not particularly good at defending. You might not recognize that from their topline numbers, which are deceiving. They've only conceded 1.07 goals per match, that's the third-best total in the league. Look a little deeper, however, and the numbers get uglier. Spurs conceded 12.57 shots per match, there are only eight teams in the league that concede more. They concede 1.30 expected goals per match, exactly league average.

Their stingy defensive record is not the result of a side that is difficult to score goals against, rather it's the result of Hugo Lloris having another excellent shot-stopping season in goal. No team has a larger gap between its expected goals on target conceded and actual goals conceded than Spurs' 4.66.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Sounders must adapt without Morris
Sounders must adapt without Morris

Matt Pentz looks at the challenges the Seattle Sound will face this season, including the absence of left winger Jordan Morris:

“Just look at this heat map from TruMedia, which shows the average position of all Seattle players over the course of last season, and keep in mind that Morris played on the left wing.

Other advanced metrics from last season bode more positively for the Sounders. They finished close to the top of the league in possession, touches, passes attempted and pass completion in the final third. They like to proactively take control of games and dictate tempo; that’s unlikely to change given that most of the midfield remains intact, and such a style can help teams ride out stretches when they might not be their sharpest. Their expected goals and assists were both third in MLS, a good sign that they aren’t due for too much regression. “

Full article: The Athletic

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Ronaldo having best Juventus season yet
Ronaldo having best Juventus season yet

Mike Goodman uses TruMedia’s ProVision research platform to dissect how Cristiano Ronaldo is having his best Juventus season yet:

“The percentage of headers Ronaldo is taking has declined precipitously. His first two seasons at Juventus 15.8% and 15.9% of his shots were headers. It's only at 11.1% this season. The last time he took this few headers as a percentage of his total shots was 2012-13 with Real Madrid. And yet despite that shift, defenders have not been able to keep him from getting good shots with his feet. He hasn't been forced to take more shots outside the box, he still takes 51% of shots with his feet inside the box, in line with 50.6% last season and 51.7% the season before. In fact, the average distance of shots with his feet hasn't changed hardly at all. It's 18.7 yards this season, down from 19.2 last season and 18.8 the season before.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Why do teams play the ball out of the back?
Why do teams play the ball out of the back?

Why do teams continue to play the ball out of the back? ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses TruMedia’s ProVision platform to examine the numbers:

“Playing out from the back is why teams press

Let's begin exploring this by laying out some basic data:

- On average, teams in Europe's Big 5 leagues this season average 94.8 possessions per match and begin 7.5% of them, about 7.1 per game, in the attacking third. They score about once every 32 times on these, or about 0.03 goals per possession. If they start a possession here because of a ball recovery, defensive action, dispossession or take-on, the odds increase to 0.04 goals per possession, or one in 23.

- Teams start 38.8% of their possessions, 36.8 per game, in the middle third and score once every 61 times, or about 0.02 goals per possession.

- Teams start 53.7% of their possessions, 50.9 per game, in their defending third and score once every 89 times, or 0.01 goals per possession.”

Full article: ESPN

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Breaking down the U.S. midfield options
Breaking down the U.S. midfield options

The Athletic’s Sam Stejskal uses TruMedia’s ProVision graphics to break down the United States midfield options for Olympic qualifying:

“As shown in the below charts, which track the percentage of each player’s touches in the 2020 season based on location, Tessmann and Williamson don’t play as much in the final third as Mihailovic, who, though not as defensively inclined, is also capable of playing on the wing. Kreis confirmed that he primarily thinks of all three players as No. 8s.”

Full article: The Athletic

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What Jordan Morris's injury means for his teams
What Jordan Morris's injury means for his teams

What does Jordan Morris's injury mean for the USMNT, Sounders, Swansea and Morris himself? The Athletic uses TruMedia’s ProVision platform and graphics to dive in:

“Morris was most effective on the left wing for the Sounders, but that’s a spot locked down on the U.S. team by Chelsea’s Christian Pulisic. It was not clear if U.S. coach Gregg Berhalter saw Morris as a legitimate option to start on the right wing opposite Pulisic, or if he looked at Morris as a super-sub who could enter the game to add pace up top and threaten with runs in behind. Morris definitely spent time on the right wing for the U.S. under Berhalter, and he was certainly one of the more proven options to start in that spot, if needed. Pulisic’s injury history also means that Morris was solid cover for that left winger position should the attacker be unavailable for games.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Don't worry about Bayern Munich
Don't worry about Bayern Munich

TruMedia’s Paul Carr makes his picks for the UEFA Champions League round of 16 first legs:

“Bayern Munich comes in on a relative skid, winless in two straight league games after drawing Arminia Bielefeld on the 15th and losing 2-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. However, Bayern outshot each opponent by over double digits, with 1.4 more expected goals than Arminia and 0.6 more than Eintracht.

Before those two stumbles, Bayern had won seven straight games in all competitions, outscoring opponents 15-2 with a similar edge in expected goals (16.5 to 6.4). Don't be worried about last week's results. Take advantage of the favorable shift in Bayern's odds (which were -170 before the weekend) and stick with the defending champion in this one.

Pick: Bayern win (-150)”

Full article: ESPN

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How is Dest doing at Barcelona?
How is Dest doing at Barcelona?

ESPN’s Bill Connelly uses the ProVision platform and graphics to dissect Sergiño Dest’s first season at Barcelona:

“Among the 150 big-five full-backs and wing-backs with at least 750 league minutes this season, Dest's pass completion rate (90.4%) ranks first, as does his completion rate into the attacking third (90.0%). No, these have not been long-distance passes, and yes, a lot of these passes have gone to Lionel Messi, which is to say they are high-percentage opportunities. But his accuracy and his speed on the ball get the ball where it needs to be almost every time. He's also in the 99th percentile in completion rate from the middle third (92.8%) and in the 93rd percentile from the defensive third (82.6%).”

Full article: ESPN

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How Odegaard improves Arsenal
How Odegaard improves Arsenal

With Arsenal's signing of Martin Odegaard now official, James Benge looks at how Odegaard can make Arsenal better:

“It has been perhaps the great struggle of Arsenal under Arteta, to get players into the central area just outside the penalty area where they can pick a pass or take a shot. Again, this is something that Smith Rowe has shown flashes of doing early on in his career and the same is true of Odegaard, who created a string of opportunities for Real Sociedad teammates last season from areas just outside the penalty box.

In particular he seems to thrive on the inside right channel, where many of his take ons come as he drives infield on his left foot. That suggests he might not only ease the burden on Smith Rowe but also Saka, though theoretically Arsenal are well stocked in that position with club record signing Nicolas Pepe and the well-remunerated Willian already on the fringes of Arteta's side.”

Full article: CBS Sports

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Why can't Liverpool score?
Why can't Liverpool score?

James Benge uses TruMedia’s ProVision platform to analyze Liverpool’s scoring issues and how Mo Salah’s role has changed this season:

“This season that has changed somewhat with Salah forced to drop ever deeper in pursuit of the ball, as his heatmaps indicate.

Equally, because he is operating from deeper he is now taking 28 percent of his shots from outside the box having not even attempted 17 percent the season before. The same is true, to a lesser extent of Mane and Firmino. Without a flawlessly functioning system behind them the front three are having to do more and deal with less – it is notable as well that those two have been taking far more headed shots than in years gone by. If the full-backs are having to put in more crosses from low percentage positions then naturally the likes of Firmino and Mane will be attempting more headers and fewer high-percentage shots on their strongest foot.”

Full article: The Athletic

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Hoppe's Bundesliga hat trick
Hoppe's Bundesliga hat trick

The Washington Post uses research from TruMedia’s Paul Carr to highlight Matthew Hoppe’s Bundesliga hat trick:

“He is the fourth U.S. teenager to score in the Bundesliga, joining Pulisic (formerly with Borussia Dortmund), Reyna (currently with Dortmund) and Sargent (Werder Bremen).

According to Paul Carr at TruMedia Sports, Hoppe is also the third American to post a hat trick in one of Europe’s top five leagues. The others were scored by players with London clubs: Clint Dempsey in 2012 for Fulham and Pulisic in 2019 for Chelsea. Hoppe, a center forward, is the youngest.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Liverpool's dip in form
Liverpool's dip in form

Bill Connelly examines the numbers behind Liverpool’s dip in form, using TruMedia’s ProVision research platform:

2018-19: 15.1 shots per match, 0.14 xG/shot, 17% of shots coming with 3+ defenders between the shooter and the goal, 28% with 0-1 defenders

2019-20: 15.6 shots per match, 0.13 xG/shot, 18% of shots coming with 3+ defenders between the shooter and the goal, 24% with 0-1 defenders

2020-21: 15.4 shots per match, 0.14 xG/shot, 19% of shots coming with 3+ defenders between the shooter and the goal, 17% with 0-1 defenders

Last 3 matches: 15.0 shots per match, 0.11 xG/shot, 33% of shots coming with 3+ defenders between the shooter and the goal, 13% with 0-1 defenders

Full article: ESPN

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Rangers playing long balls
Rangers playing long balls

The Athletic’s Jordan Campbell using TruMedia’s graphics and research platform to analyze Rangers tactics under Steven Gerrard:

“Understandably, Allan McGregor was growing frustrated by having to go long under pressure. On several occasions he could be heard urging the full-backs to go higher so he had an angle to clip the ball wide to them but their struggles continued until half-time.

Below is a pass map showing the destinations of McGregor’s passes. He went long with 71 per cent of them.

In the last two seasons, the only domestic game in which he has gone long more often was in the 2-1 defeat by Hearts in January last year and in a 2-0 win over Motherwell in December 2019 where the Fir Park side pressed really high.”

Full article: The Athletic

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How is Calvert-Lewin the Premier League's top scorer?
How is Calvert-Lewin the Premier League's top scorer?

Matt Furniss uses the ProVision research platform and graphics to find reasons for the success of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the Premier League’s leading scorer:

“One reason for his upturn in goalscoring opportunities is the fact Ancelotti is deploying him as a classic number nine. Calvert-Lewin has seen his average touches per 90 minutes drop under the Italian’s management, but at the same time seen more of the ball inside the opposition goal area. Fifteen per cent of his touches have been inside the penalty box since Ancelotti took charge, a big increase from previous managers. When compared to other Premier League strikers since Ancelotti arrived at Goodison Park, Calvert-Lewin is one of the standouts.”

Full article: Stats Perform

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Son Heung-Min is the world's best finisher
Son Heung-Min is the world's best finisher

Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s ProVision research platform and graphics to look at how well Son Heung-Min has been finishing for Tottenham this season:

“If we look at goals above average per shot, then Sancho is atop the list along with, strangely, Inter Milan center back Stefan de Vrij, at 0.08 goals above average per shot. Plotting both stats on the same graphs paints Son in an even better light, too. He’s circled in red.”

Full article: No Grass in the Clouds

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What's wrong with Aubameyang?
What's wrong with Aubameyang?

Matt Furniss uses ProVision research tools and heat maps to look at Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s struggles this season:

“As shown in the images above, it’s very clear how much of a positional shift the 31-year-old has encountered between his spell at Arsenal under Emery compared to that under fellow Spaniard Arteta.

Arteta recently told The Times, ‘Auba is scoring a lot of goals coming from that position; he has done that a lot in his career. We know he can play as a number nine. At the moment the team is a little bit better like this.’”

Full article: Stats Perform

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