Messi is the best shooter

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon examines soccer’s best shooters, including Lionel Messi, using TruMedia’s research tool and graphics…

To determine the best shooters, we can compare xG to xGOT to see which players have added the most value to their attempts. Using TruMedia data for all domestic seasons going back to the start of the 2014-15 season, we'll identify the best at a number of shots and end by identifying the best shooter of them all. …

These are all of Messi's free kicks since 2014. Look how many ended up in the corners. Goals are green, and misses are red.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Redskins rushing woes

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg writes on the Redskins rushing issues this season…

“With Derrius Guice injured, Washington’s primary rusher, Adrian Peterson, is having one of the worst rushing campaigns in the league. Peterson is averaging 2.7 yards per carry, with a success rate of 28 percent, success determined by whether a runner gets at least 45 percent of the yards needed for a first down on first down, at least 60 percent on second down or 100 percent of the yards needed for a first down on third or fourth down. Peterson ranks 35th of the 35 rushers who have at least 40 carries. The league average success rate this year for rushers with at least as many carries as Peterson is 44 percent, according to data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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What if Man United kept David Moyes?

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool as he looks back at David Moyes’ short tenure as Manchester United manager…

“Among the six post-Ferguson seasons, Moyes's one year with United ranks last in points (64), but that's perhaps slightly unkind. That team scored more goals (64) than all but two of the others and allowed more (43) than all but one. Their goal differential (plus-21) was the fourth-best of the post-Fergie years. They may have even been slightly unfortunate to finish where they did. Injuries limited Robin van Persie, who'd scored 56 goals in the previous two Premier League seasons, to just 1,579 minutes. And according to TruMedia data, United's expected-goal differential under Moyes was fifth-best in the Premier League in 2013-14.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Are the 2019 Patriots better than the 2007 Patriots?

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to compare the 2019 Patriots to the 2007 team, which finished the regular season 16-0:

“New England’s offense scored 63 more points than expected through the first three games of 2007 after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per data from TruMedia. Those Patriots saved just 19 points on defense. This year, New England scored 19 more points than expected on offense, with 81 points saved on defense, a complete inverse of how 2007′s squad began its undefeated campaign.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Analyzing possible MLB playoff matchups

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle uses TruMedia’s research tool analyze the teams that the favorites do (and don’t) want to face in the MLB playoffs…

The Yankees also have to keep the other team off the scoreboard. Their postseason pitching staff profiles as the hardest-throwing staff in the AL, the staff most heavily populated by lefty pitchers and with the most vicious bullpen. The Astros and Athletics have the best collective OPS figures against lefties. The teams that have been the most productive against what TruMedia defines as "hard" pitches are also the Astros and Athletics.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Start Garoppolo vs Steelers defense

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected-points model to support his case for Jimmy Garoppolo as a starting fantasy quarterback this week…

“…it is unlikely (Minkah) Fitzpatrick will be able to make an impact in his first week with the [Steelers]. Instead, look for Garoppolo and the 49ers to find success against a pass defense that is allowing 15 points more per game via the pass after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each throw against. Only the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins have been worse in 2019, per data from TruMedia.”

Full article: The Washington Post

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Is Harry Kane on the decline?

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s research tool and models to see how Harry Kane may be on the decline…

According to TruMedia's post-shot xG model, Kane's shooting (i.e., where he placed the ball on the goal frame) added a whopping 0.2 xG to his shots per 90 minutes. Finishing, though, is unpredictable from year to year and most players regress toward their xG numbers, so Kane was able to reach the same heights the next year because of the massive increase in shots. The year before produced world-class results on an unsustainable process, and it seemed as if he'd figured out a way to make the results stick.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Redskins line faces challenge vs Cowboys

The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg writes that the Redskins defensive line is not yet living up to the hype, using TruMedia’s research tool to highlight the line’s importance this coming week against Dallas…

The more Dallas outscores its opponent, the more the Cowboys run the ball. Since 2007, Coach Jason Garrett’s first year on staff (then as the offensive coordinator), the Cowboys have run the ball more than half the time when leading by four or more points. That drops to 32 percent when Dallas trails by four or more.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Sit Chiefs running backs vs Jags

Sitting all the Chiefs running backs may be a wise fantasy football move for Week 1, says Neil Greenberg, with the help of TruMedia’s expected-points model:

LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: We don’t know which of these three running backs will get the majority of the workload in Week 1, but we do know that all three will be going up against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that is expected to be the 11th best of 2019. Jacksonville’s defensive front stopped 22% of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage in 2018 (the league average was 19%) and allowed eight fewer points per 100 rushing plays against than you would expect after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, per TruMedia. Only the Houston Texans (9.6 points saved per 100 rushing plays) were better at preventing points on the ground last season.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Ezekiel Elliott not worth the cash?

Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected points model to suggest that Ezekiel Elliott may not be worth the huge contract the Cowboys gave him:

According to TruMedia, Dallas scored 2.2 points more than expected per 100 snaps in 2016 after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each of Elliott’s carries. That dropped to 1.1 fewer points than expected per 100 snaps in 2017, and dropped again in 2018 to 5.5 fewer points than expected per 100 snaps. The drop was even more stark on red-zone carries: 30.3 points more than expected per 100 attempts in 2016, 22.2 in 2017 and 3.9 in 2018.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Mo Salah reigns as the top PL attacker

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon writes that Liverpool’s Mo Salah is the reigning top attacker in the Premier League…

However, given the heights Salah hit the previous season, tying for the league-lead in goals+assists isn't enough to cost him the throne. While standard expected goals models just take into account the location of a shot, TruMedia has a post-shot xG model that adds or subtracts value from a shot based on where it was put on the goal frame. (Shots that miss the net get a big ol' zero.) According to this data, Salah led the league with 24.06 xG (on 22 goals), while no one else was above 20, and Aguero was down at 16.69 (on 21 goals).

Put another way: The main reason Salah didn't score more goals was that opposing keepers consistently stood on their heads when he shot the ball.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Five fantasy players to upgrade

Neil Greenberg has five players to move up your fantasy draft boards after the preseason, including Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk:

The Arizona Cardinals have a rookie head coach (Kliff Kingsbury) and a rookie quarterback (Kyler Murray, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft), so any chemistry we see on the gridiron has to be taken as a positive, even in scrimmages. Murray targeted Christian Kirk a team-high nine times this preseason, per data from TruMedia. Two of those targets were 20 or more yards downfield and one other was in the red zone, illustrating how versatile Kingsbury feels Kirk could be once the regular season starts.

Full article: The Washington Post

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Man City's dominance only grows

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon writes that Manchester City is turning into a superteam, using TruMedia’s research tool and expected-goals model:

Before last season kicked off, "a [Kevin de Bruyne] injury" was probably No. 1 on the List of Reasons Why City Won't Repeat. A KDB injury is exactly what happened; he played fewer than 1,000 minutes in 2018-19 after struggling with injuries, and yet City were basically as they good as they were the year before. In fact, according to TruMedia data, their expected-goal differential actually improved after the 100-point season. Guardiola has his third "superteam," but this time they don't have an irreplaceable superstar.

Full article: ESPN.com

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Will fantasy stars like Rafael Devers keep it up?

ESPN’s Tim Heaney uses TruMedia’s baseball product as he examines whether fantasy stars like Rafael Devers will sustain their excellence in the second half of the season.

“ …many of us thought Devers was exposed in his second year, forgetting the hyped former prospect was just 21. … But four notable improvements stand out for me. First, he’s shined when he’s made contact. Here’s his progress from the past three years, per TruMedia. HIs 2019 numbers (for exit velocity and percent of batted balls at 95+ MPH) rank third and second, respectively, in the majors.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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No. 10s are dying breeds in soccer

Mesut Ozil's Arsenal decline shows that the classic No. 10 position is dying in soccer, as ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon explains, with the help of TruMedia’s ProVision product…

“Across 35 games [in the 2015-16 Premier League season], Arsenal's Mesut Ozil created 146 total chances -- 20 more than any other player since 2010, according to TruMedia data. His 19 assists are the high-water mark in the Premier League this decade, as are the 28 Big Chances (defined by Opta as "a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score") he created. From Sept. 26 through Nov. 21, Ozil recorded an assist in seven straight games, something no Premier League player had ever done before and no one's done since. In fact, only 18 other players in the league that year even reached seven assists across the entire season.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Could Mbappe run down his contract?

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s ProVision product to contextualize the accomplishments of Kylian Mbappe at age 20, and what might happen if Mbappe runs down his contract…

“According to TruMedia data, which goes back to the 2010-11 season, Mbappe's 33 Ligue 1 goals last season were the most of any player age 20 or under in Europe's big five leagues in that time period. When they were in the same age bracket, Lionel Messi topped out at 14 goals, while Cristiano Ronaldo never got above nine.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Tyler Lockett's outrageously efficient 2018
Tyler Lockett's outrageously efficient 2018

In his article about Tyler Lockett’s stellar 2018 season, ESPN’s Seth Walder uses a TruMedia-generated arrow chart to illustrate where and how efficiently Tyler Lockett caught downfield passes last season.

“What's noticeable right away, besides how many catches (red) there are for deep passes, is that Lockett has two clear clusters of routes: down the right sideline and across the field from right to left.

But the inverse, crossing routes from left to right, are missing. That was surprising because with a right-handed scrambling quarterback like Russell Wilson, I expected plenty of improvised routes from the left to the right. Part of the reason those routes are missing is because Lockett lines up on Wilson's right 62% of the time. But the other factor is that Wilson is willing to make unconventional throws, running to the right and throwing to the left anyway…”

Full article: ESPN.com

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Is Barcelona over-reliant on Lionel Messi?

ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon uses TruMedia’s product to examine the numbers around Barcelona’s reliance on Lionel Messi…

“According to TruMedia data going back to 2010, Messi created a career-high 24.2% of Barcelona's chances (assists plus key passes) when he was on the field in 2017-18. Barca were even more reliant on him to put the ball on goal, as he accounted for 39.2% of their shots, his second-highest proportion since 2010. This past season, Messi upped his importance as a creator (28.3%) while maintaining a similar proportion of shots (37.9%). If you add both numbers, Messi was responsible for 63.4% of Barca's total shots in 2017-18 and 66.2% last season. This is unprecedented, as the previous high was 55.5% in 2012-13.”

Full article: ESPN.com

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U.S. Soccer Uses ProVision at Women's World Cup

U.S. Soccer uses ProVision to prepare before, after and during the Women’s World Cup…

“The U.S. Soccer Federation has embraced data. In recent years, the USSF has hired more data scientists and, in 2017, it partnered with OptaPro on a three-year deal to collect and manage match data at all levels, from senior national teams on down to under-16 players.”

Full article: SportTechie

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