Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s expected points model to suggest that Ezekiel Elliott may not be worth the huge contract the Cowboys gave him:
According to TruMedia, Dallas scored 2.2 points more than expected per 100 snaps in 2016 after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each of Elliott’s carries. That dropped to 1.1 fewer points than expected per 100 snaps in 2017, and dropped again in 2018 to 5.5 fewer points than expected per 100 snaps. The drop was even more stark on red-zone carries: 30.3 points more than expected per 100 attempts in 2016, 22.2 in 2017 and 3.9 in 2018.
Full article: The Washington Post