Should teams pass on first down?

How valuable is starting a drive with a pass play? The Athletic’s Andy Staples and Jason Starrett talked to. coaches and used TruMedia’s research site to crunch the numbers:

“Sometimes, the numbers can identify something that was painfully obvious in the most excruciating manner possible. For example, only one team in the entire FBS gained more on opening runs than it did on opening passes: Kentucky. From 2019-20, the Wildcats averaged 7.2 yards per rush on the first play of a drive and 5.5 yards a pass. Every other team in the country was at least equal, and that level of dysfunction in the passing game is why Kentucky coach Mark Stoops fired coordinator Eddie Gran and replaced him with former Los Angeles Rams assistant Liam Coen.

Not surprisingly, Wisconsin ranked near the bottom in first-play pass rate at No. 120. The Badgers, who make clear that they intend to establish the run and have built a very successful identity doing that, only threw on 30.5 percent of first plays. But if you’re averaging 6.6 yards per carry on those plays and 8.8 yards per pass attempt, that’s not nearly as big a difference as when other programs make that choice.”

Full article: The Athletic