deGrom's incredible bad luck

Neil Greenberg uses TruMedia’s research site to look at the numbers behind Jacob deGrom’s incredible bad luck:

“Since 2018, the year of his first Cy Young Award, deGrom has made 78 starts and pitched 503 innings. Seventy-eight percent (61) of those starts were quality starts, meaning he lasted six or more innings and surrendered three or fewer earned runs. He’s struck out 649 batters, walked 110 and allowed just 115 earned runs (2.06 ERA) over that span. Yet the Mets are 36-42 in those matchups. No, that’s not a typo. …

How does that happen? A lack of run support is part of it. Over the past four seasons, the Mets have given deGrom 4.1 runs of support per nine innings pitched, the third-lowest of any starting pitcher over the past four years. If he had been given an average number of runs (4.6 per data from TruMedia) in support of his 2.06 ERA, we’d expect the Mets to be 45-10 in those starts. Instead they went 36-19, nine fewer wins.”

Full article: The Washington Post