ESPN.com’s Kevin Van Valkenburg tracks the history of the fly sweep, which has gained popularity in the NFL as use of shotgun offenses grows…
“The NFL a storied history of ignoring (or marginalizing) eccentric football minds like Stitt's. … That may be changing, though, the more the NFL begins to resemble the wide-open nature of the college game. According to ESPN TruMedia tracking, 63 percent of NFL plays this season were run with the quarterback in shotgun. Kansas City led the league, with Patrick Mahomes in the shotgun at the start of 80 percent of its plays. There is a reason offensive wiz kids like Kliff Kingsburry, Lincoln Riley and Matt Campbell have been mentioned as serious candidates for NFL jobs, despite limited experience or mixed results in college. They're seen as the next generation of innovators.”
Full article: ESPN.com
Read MoreThe Washington Post says the Saints were big winners on Wild Card weekend, as they’ll face a relatively weak Eagles secondary…
“The Eagles will travel to New Orleans to face the Saints, the top seed in the NFC, which also features one of this year’s top quarterbacks in Drew Brees. … Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, by comparison, ended the regular season ranked 30th out of 32 qualified passers. That’s quite a difference for an Eagles pass coverage unit who has seen opponents score almost three points more per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each throw against them, per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreNeil Greenberg highlights potentially fatal flaws in each NFL playoff team, using advanced statistics including TruMedia’s expected points added model.
“Passers have completed 67 percent of their throws against the Saints for an average rating of 100.3, roughly the equivalent of Goff’s 2018 number (101.1). Looked at another way, New Orleans allowed three points more per game than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each pass against. Only seven other teams, just one a playoff contender (Chiefs), were worse in 2018, per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Bears defense makes Chicago the pick to cover the spread in the wild-card round, says The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg:
“Chicago was the first team since 2006 to record both 50 sacks and 25 interceptions, plus allowed a league low 1.4 points per drive (league average was 2.0) with the fifth-best red zone defense (50 percent), forcing opponents three-and-out more than a third of the time (36 percent, fifth best). It was so good opponents scored almost 10 points fewer per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play against. No other defense came close per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreWith 5-1 odds, the Bears are a good value bet to win NFC, says The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg:
“The Bears are the obvious standout here, and their defense is one of the best we have seen since 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams. Chicago is allowing 9.5 fewer points per game than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play, the ninth-best mark over the past 17 seasons, per TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreDean Oliver, TruMedia’s VP of Data Science, talked with Inside Science about the role of artificial intelligence and machine learning in basketball analytics.
“Even complex board games follow rigid rules, while basketball is fluid, with teams constantly adjusting and readjusting to each other. "There is no dominant strategy," [Oliver] said. "The game is far more robust."
Nor are programs like Bhostgusters meant to replace coaches. What they do, instead, is help coaches check their intuition about a play. "This is not telling the coach what to do. This is assisting the coach in his day-to-day job," Lucey said. "There's a limit on what data can do, because data doesn't capture everything a coach sees and smells."
Indeed, a coach's job is far more than drawing up plays. "The element of coaching that doesn't get played up as much as it should is the ability of the coaches to work with players, to motivate them, to get them to play together," Oliver said.”
Full article: Inside Science
Read MoreThe Bears defense makes them the best Eliminator pick in Week 16, says Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post:
“Teams are scoring almost 10 points per game less than expected against the Bears, after you account for the down, distance and field position of each offensive play, per data from TruMedia. Not only is that tops in the league this season; it would also be the ninth best mark since 2002, the year the league expanded to 32 teams.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg cites TruMedia’s expected-points model as a reason to add the Patriots defense for their Week 16 matchup against the Bills.
“Buffalo scores nearly 13 fewer points per game than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play. Only the Arizona Cardinals are worse, per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Bengals have struggled against tight ends, making Jared Cook a top fantasy option this weekend…
“Cook caught 7 of 10 targets for 116 yards on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers giving him two straight games with at least 100 yards receiving. Plus, this week’s opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, allows a robust 113.7 passer rating this season to opposing quarterbacks targeting tight ends in coverage per TruMedia; the league average is 98.6.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreTruMedia Networks’ Paul Carr contributed to Caitlin Murray’s piece for The Athletic, on why the Portland Timbers have been big underdogs according to predictive models, and how they’ve been able to beat those odds.
“Two things models often struggle with are how two teams’ styles match up, and adjustments that might be made on a given day,” Carr says. “Portland has done well at both these things in the playoffs, by clogging the middle against SKC and by pressing higher against Seattle, among other ways. Plus there’s the eternal randomness of playoffs, like Blanco’s wonder strike.”
Full article: The Athletic
Read MoreBaltimore’s strong secondary is a reason to pick the Ravens to win the AFC North, writes Neil Greenberg in The Washington Post:
“The Ravens secondary, in particular, has been strong. Marlon Humphrey, Eric Weddle, Anthony Levine Sr. and Tony Jefferson have helped hold opposing quarterbacks to an 83.4 passer rating against, the second-best mark in the NFL this year, with offenses scoring almost two points per game fewer than expected on pass attempts, per TruMedia. Linebacker Za’Darius Smith has been a force as well: 6.5 sacks, 44 total pressures and 16 stops at or behind the line of scrimmage in 2018.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Packers are the best eliminator pick in Week 13, says The Washington Post, in part because of the Cardinals offensive struggles…
“According to TruMedia, Arizona is scoring 13 points fewer per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each offensive play. Only the Buffalo Bills (15 fewer per game) are worse in 2018 and only six teams are worse since 2002, the first year the league played with 32 teams.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Washington Post picks the Colts to cover (-4) against the Jaguars, in part because of Jacksonville’s defensive regression…
“There was a time when the Jaguars defense was something to be feared. Not anymore. The team is giving up almost four more points per game on passes than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each throw, per TruMedia, and will have its hands full with quarterback Andrew Luck, who has been on fire during the Colts’ five-game win streak.”
Full article: The Washington Post
Read MoreThe Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg recommends Case Keenum as a fantasy starter this week, in part because of the Bengals defensive struggles:
“The Bengals are also allowing eights more points per game than expected on passing plays based on the down, distance and field position of each throw against. Per data from TruMedia, only the Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are worse in 2018.”
Full article: The Washington Post
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The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg says it’s time to stop sleeping on the Chargers, in part because they have their best defense in years.
“Its work at disrupting the pass has the Chargers defense allowing 5.3 points per 100 snaps fewer than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play, the sixth-best mark this season and the best performance to date of any eventual Chargers playoff team over the past 14 years, per data from TruMedia.”
Full article: The Washington Post
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For Sports Illustrated, our Paul Carr analyzes the four MLS conference finalists and their vastly different playing styles.
Measuring playing style by where a team begins possession and how long a team maintains possession, the quartet could not have been much more different this season.
New York and Sporting Kansas City began the most possessions in the attacking third. Sporting Kansas City and Atlanta had longer possessions than any other teams. Atlanta and Portland rarely gained possession in the attacking third. Portland and (especially) New York had some of the shortest average possessions in the league.
Full article: Sports Illustrated
Read MoreIn his Week 9 picks, The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg takes the Redskins to cover against the Falcons, in part because Atlanta’s defensive issues.
“Atlanta is allowing 12 more points per game than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each defensive play, per TruMedia. The Oakland Raiders are the next worst team with eight points allowed more per game than expected.”
Full article: Washington Post
Read MoreESPN’s Cameron Wolfe wonders how long the Dolphins can wait on Ryan Tannehill.
“The numbers bear out his yo-yo résumé. Tannehill is 40-42 as a starter. He has made the playoffs once -- in 2016, when he was injured in December, and Matt Moore steered the ship to shore. Since Tannehill was drafted in 2012, he ranks 19th among NFL quarterbacks in completion percentage, 25th in passer rating, 26th in touchdown-to-interception ratio, 28th in yards per attempt, 30th in Total QBR and 36th in QB win percentage, according to TruMedia.”
Full article: ESPN.com
Read MoreTruMedia’s Dean Oliver talks to ABC News about HomeCourt, an iPhone app that analyzes jump shots.
“The concept that consumers can do large-scale data collection is one that is important in the AI/computer vision world. Doing this beyond [a] basic fitness app is something whose time has come.
But note that it is just 'data' collection, not analysis, not instruction. It uses complex analysis to collect data for users, but will it really make players better? That's to be determined. But getting consumers the data is a big step towards those applications."
Full article: ABC News
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