Sheil Kapadia likes the Dolphins (-3) over Oakland, in part because of the Raiders terrible defense:

“The Raiders are 2-6 with a minus-67 point differential in December over the last two seasons, and one of those wins was the “Gregg Williams game” against the Jets. Overall, Jon Gruden has done some impressive things. The Raiders are eighth offensively over the last two seasons, according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. The defense, though, is 32nd. And overall, Gruden has an 18-28 record. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are trying to hold off the Ravens for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. It’s unclear as of this writing whether Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota will start for the Raiders. The Dolphins’ offense has not been great, but this could be a “get right” game for Tua Tagovailoa, and Miami’s defense has been impressive.”

Full article: The Athletic

Sheil Kapadia likes the Texans (-3) over the Lions on Thanksgiving, in part because of Detroit’s defense:

“Deshaun Watson’s game against the Patriots last week was among the best by a quarterback this season. He shredded New England, throwing for 344 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 9.3 yards per attempt (YPA). Watson also ran for 36 yards and a score. According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, the Lions’ defense ranks 29th, and the Texans’ defense ranks 32nd. I could see Matthew Stafford playing well after the Lions got shut out last week, but he will again be without Kenny Golladay.”

Full article: The Athletic

Sheil Kapadia likes the Ravens (-6) over Tennessee on Sunday:

According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, Baltimore’s offense ranks 24th through 10 weeks. If the playoffs started today, the Ravens would be the last team in the AFC to get in, and the Titans would miss out. Given how little Tennessee gets from its defense and special teams, its offense has to be nearly perfect to win. I’m not giving up on the Ravens just yet.

Full article: The Athletic

In his weekly picks, the red-hot Sheil Kapadia (79-53-1 ATS this season!) likes the Rams (-1.5) against the Seahawks:

“Jalen Ramsey against DK Metcalf is going to be fun. The Rams enter the second half of the season ranked first in overall defense according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model — first against the pass and 11th against the run. Sean McVay is 3-1 in his last four games against the Seahawks, and the Rams have averaged 31.5 points per game in those contests. The NFC West race feels like it’s going to come down to Week 17. We could have a three-way tie for first place after a Rams victory here.”

Full article: The Athletic

In his weekly picks column, Sheil Kapadia likes the Ravens (-1.5) in Indianapolis, in part because of the Colts struggling run game…

“Frank Reich suggested that the numbers don’t tell the whole story with the Colts’ run game, but the numbers are concerning. Football Outsiders has Indianapolis 22nd in rushing efficiency, and according to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model, the Colts rank 29th in rushing. Philip Rivers has played well the last two games and faces a Ravens defense that will be without cornerback Marlon Humphrey. But Baltimore will be a motivated group after last week’s loss to the Steelers, and the Ravens are still a really good team. I think they bounce back here.”

Full article: The Athletic

Take the Bears (+4.5) against a weak Saints defense, writes Sheil Kapadia in his weekly picks column:

“ESPN analyst Brian Griese created a stir Monday night when he mentioned how Nick Foles said during a production meeting that he didn’t always have time to execute the play calls that Matt Nagy was giving him. Overall, though, the Bears’ offense has a lot of quick throws baked in. Foles has gotten rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less on 54.2 percent of his pass plays — the third-highest rate of any starter. New Orleans’ defense continues to suffer coverage busts every week and ranks 29th in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. As of this writing, it looks like the Saints could once again be without Michael Thomas.”

Full article: The Athletic

In his weekly picks column, The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia likes the Ravens (-7.5) and their defense in Philadelphia:

“This is not the same Ravens offense we saw a year ago. Baltimore has dropped to 21st in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model. The Ravens’ defense, however, is first. Carson Wentz played his best game of the season in the Eagles’ Week 5 loss against the Steelers, but he’ll be tested by the Ravens’ blitz schemes. Baltimore blitzes at the second-highest rate of any team, and Wentz ranks 29th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in success rate against the blitz. The Eagles probably need to steal a score on special teams or defense to produce enough points to pull off the upset. I don’t see it.”

Full article: The Athletic

The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia uses TruMedia’s expected points added model to support his pick of the Rams (-7) over the Redskins this week:

“Los Angeles ranks fourth in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) model against the pass. Washington, meanwhile, benched Dwayne Haskins in favor of Kyle Allen, a move they’ve been forecasting for months. With one of the worst pass-protecting lines in the league and one player (Terry McLaurin) to throw to, I don’t see Allen faring much better than Haskins.”

Full article: The Athletic

The Colts are Sheil Kapadia’s pick to cover against the Bears this week, in part because of their strong defensive performances so far:

“The advanced metrics love the Colts’ defense. Indianapolis ranks first in defensive DVOA and TruMedia’s EPA per snap model. The DeForest Buckner trade is looking like a home run, and Xavier Rhodes had a pair of interceptions last week. But it’s been just three games against the Jaguars, Vikings and Jets. This group still has a lot to prove. “

Full article: The Athletic